Concern over discredited rail forecasting - SoS
Sunday, 26 June 2016
The Scotland on Sunday
article mainly features
Levenmouth but also specifically mentions Fraserburgh
and St Andrews as possible re-opening candidates
which could be being stymied by a now-discredited
passenger forecasting method. This pessimistic model
was first found wanting in 1986, when the
Edinburgh-Bathgate line carried 4 times as many
passengers as predicted, and over 20 years later
apparently lessons still had not been learned, as the
re-opened Stirling-Alloa line in 2008 also carried
quadruple its forecast. Even the Borders line is
carrying 22% more passengers than anticipated.
A suggestion has been made by an office-bearer of Railfuture Scotland that the model is flawed by making the first choice ‘public or private transport’, thus always underestimating rail, when the initial decision is more likely to be ‘road or rail’, with the ‘public or private’ choice only being considered if the initial option is for road.
The full text of the Scotland on Sunday article is at:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/pessimistic-passenger-forecasts-hit-bid-to-reopen-scots-rail-lines-1-4163256
A suggestion has been made by an office-bearer of Railfuture Scotland that the model is flawed by making the first choice ‘public or private transport’, thus always underestimating rail, when the initial decision is more likely to be ‘road or rail’, with the ‘public or private’ choice only being considered if the initial option is for road.
The full text of the Scotland on Sunday article is at:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/pessimistic-passenger-forecasts-hit-bid-to-reopen-scots-rail-lines-1-4163256