Concern over discredited rail forecasting - SoS
26, 06 16 00:24
The Scotland on Sunday article mainly features Levenmouth but also specifically mentions Fraserburgh and St Andrews as possible re-opening candidates which could be being stymied by a now-discredited passenger forecasting method. This pessimistic model was first found wanting in 1986, when the Edinburgh-Bathgate line carried 4 times as many passengers as predicted, and over 20 years later apparently lessons still had not been learned, as the re-opened Stirling-Alloa line in 2008 also carried quadruple its forecast. Even the Borders line is carrying 22% more passengers than anticipated.
A suggestion has been made by an office-bearer of Railfuture Scotland that the model is flawed by making the first choice ‘public or private transport’, thus always underestimating rail, when the initial decision is more likely to be ‘road or rail’, with the ‘public or private’ choice only being considered if the initial option is for road.
The full text of the Scotland on Sunday article is at:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/pessimistic-passenger-forecasts-hit-bid-to-reopen-scots-rail-lines-1-4163256
A suggestion has been made by an office-bearer of Railfuture Scotland that the model is flawed by making the first choice ‘public or private transport’, thus always underestimating rail, when the initial decision is more likely to be ‘road or rail’, with the ‘public or private’ choice only being considered if the initial option is for road.
The full text of the Scotland on Sunday article is at:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/pessimistic-passenger-forecasts-hit-bid-to-reopen-scots-rail-lines-1-4163256